Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2197.67.  Holding above is bullish...
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

Well I'll be.  Apparently, not even the prospect of the imminent demise of the Italian banking system was enough to keep the Dow from rising even further into record territory on Monday, taking my call for a lower close with it.  Mama mia!

VIX daily


The technicals

The VIX:  The VIX took a big 14% drop on Monday on a tall red marubozu breaking the 13 handle and stopping right at support at 12.15.  I'll admit I sure didn't see this one coming.  But being still overbought with a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and the lower BB not til 10.32, it would appear that there's still plenty of room to run lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:18 AM EST with ES down 0.07%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2191.17 to 2197.67.  ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator is bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463
December   1      1       1           0       0.500     -24

     And the winner is...

On Monday we got a big gap-up spinning top form the Dow and a gap-up inverted hammer from the SPX, both reversal signs.  And the admittedly new ES candle is forming as a dark cloud cover.  But the VIX doesn't seem to be on board for a reversal right now.  This is just the sort of series of conflicting signals I don't like so I'm going to take a pass tonight and call Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.