Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2146.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
Recap

On Tuesday the Dow retraced all of Monday's losses plus a bit more.  The reason isn't exactly clear.  Was this due to the outcome of last night's Liars' Club on TV?  It will be interesting to see what happens after the next debate.  Fortunately, all that really matters are the long columns of little numbers in my account so we'll just let it go at that and see what the charts might have to say for Wednesday.
 
The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a bit from 2145.33 to 2146.50.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish/.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      2       6           0       0.667     413

     And the winner is...

Tuesday's action left us in a mixed state with all of the Dow's indicators rising except for the stochastic which continues to fall.  But the majority of technical indicators I follow remain bearish tonight, notwithstanding Tuesday's incomprehensible bounce.  The VIX in particular just completed a bullish stochastic crossover and oil is headed lower again.  Also, after rising most of last week the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has now been falling again for three days.  And the futures have once again turned negative so I'm going to take another calculated risk and call Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.