Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2269.58.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

Way back last Thursday night I called Friday as "uncertain" because frankly I had no idea which way the market was going on Friday.  Turns out Mr. Market didn't either as the Dow fell all of five points after a largely indeterminate session featuring an early advance followed by a meandering dribbling away of those gains.  We now begin a short week, which always makes things tricky and on top of that it's January op-ex week and on top of that we've got a presidential inauguration coming right up on Friday.  Somehow I see more uncertainty on the horizon.

The technicals

The VIX:  The VIX continues to bounce along on multi-year support as it continues to defy my expectations for a move higher soon.  But what goes down must come up so I'm still expecting an up day this week.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:32 AM EST with ES down 0.28%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2260.83 to 2269.58.  And that along with a drop in ES now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    4      2       3           0       0.667     133


     And the winner is...

The major charts like the Dow, SPX and VIX all remain range-bound with a distinct lack of direction.  But the overnight futures are guiding lower at the moment and I don't see any real bullish signs in the ES daily chart so I'm just going to go out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.